Wednesday, 21 November 2012

2pm update - so.err...where we going?

Mr Market remains in low volume algo-bot melt land..little else needs to be said. So, lets ponder the big question, where are we headed from here?

sp'daily5b - 3 scenarios


Yes, there are infinite scenarios, but the above three cover the important ones.

So, how about A ? A rally into Christmas..and we just keep on going, taking out the QE high of sp'1474 ?

I find that VERY difficult to envision, not least since the monthly and weekly charts say 'NO!'

B', is without question a doomer near term outlook. A bounce to around 1410/25 next week, and then a train wreck down cycle of around 2 weeks, where we take out the recent 1343 low, and make a challenge of the June 1266 low.

Such a move would be real fast, take many by surprise - not least, this close to Christmas, but would..ironically, VERY likely inspire the politicians on capitol hill to agree to delaying (almost entirely) the tax rises/spending cuts that are the 'fiscal cliff'.

Scenario C' is more of a 'choppy Christmas trading', but declining into January, and eventually hitting the low 1200s by early spring.

B would be nice, but..I'd settle for C :)

back at 3pm