Saturday, 6 October 2012

Daily Index Cycle update

Another day, another week comes to a close, one of mostly pain for the bears. The formations on the charts have been really difficult to pin down, and today was even more of a mind-frak than usual. The SP' broke above the bear flag, but closed fractionally red.

IWM, daily

Nasdaq Comp






Without question, the primary trend remains UP.

The last 3 weeks of action - since QE3 was announced, have been a really confusing mess. Was Sp'1474 the top? So far the SP' has held below that peak, as have the Rus'2000, and the Transports.

Yet today, the Dow broke a new high. I suppose that could be an anomaly, but still, seeing the Dow break a new high, it just makes it really messy to chart with any confidence.

Looking at some of the indexes, we have possible H/S formations, but they really seem suspect.

All that is clear right now

All that can be said with certainty is that we continue to put in higher highs..and higher lows. It really is that simple. Taking out the recent soft low of 1430 would be a victory for the bears, but infinitely more important is breaking below the 1397 low.

Until we see a few consecutive closes <1397, the bulls remain masters of this sick, and twisted market.

A little more later