Tuesday, 4 September 2012

Volatility - black fail candle

A bit of a choppy day for the indexes. The index lows of the day were a little after the weak ISM data at 10am, and the VIX indeed maxed out at that time - putting in a classic black doom/fail candle.

A further decline in the VIX seems very likely, the key unknown is whether we fall into the 16s again.





The VIX weekly cycle still closed positive MACD cycle today, for the first time since the start of July. This is indeed a very bearish warning for equities - although the indexes look set for at least another day or two higher.

So, lets see if we can break into the 16s later this week, or whether the hourly cycle up channel holds.

Stay tuned!