Friday 7 September 2012

Daily Index Cycle update

A strong snap higher for the market, confirming the bullish pennant that I'd been concerned about for some days. With the VIX falling -12%, the immediate trend is most certainly upward.

Most of the main indexes closed at or a touch above the spring highs. Considering this is just day'1 of this up cycle, we could go some considerable way further yet!


Nasdaq Comp



Sp



Transports


Summary

Some strong gains for the broader market, and clearly the bullish pennant theory 'get out of the the way bears' was indeed the right outlook yesterday. I sure feel glad I bailed at sp'1401, which looks a fair way down from here!

That MACD (blue bar histogram) cycle sure is useful sometimes. If you look at the cycle, we could easily trundle a further 3-5 days higher before we complete this new up move.

Regardless of whatever the jobs data is tomorrow, I still think we'll battle our way higher, target for next Tue-Thursday is around sp'1445.  So, we're only talking about 1% or so higher to go, its really not much, but it'll probably take a few days to claw to that level.

As things are, I sure won't be re-shorting until late Tuesday at the earliest, and there is some significant risk in that trade idea, with both the German court and FOMC next Wednesday and Thursday respectively.

Busy days ahead!

A little more later.