The broad trend remains up, but we sure are getting toppy, and arguably are due at least some sort of multi-day decline.
Dow
Sp'daily5
Transports
Summary
As I've noted for a few days now, the transports continues to show significant strength, and it is still suggestive of higher highs for tomorrow. However, we will be coming up against stiff resistance of 5200/5250, and I am very doubtful the tranny can put in a close over that.
The Sp' closed reasonably well, and looks set to hit my target of 1445 tomorrow. That might occur right at the open on a gap up, or it might take the FOMC announcement at 12.30pm EST to inspire the markets to briefly spike higher.
Regardless, I will most definitely be looking for a re-short in the 1440s - having exited at 1401 last Tuesday.
I believe there is a good chance of quick downside to 1420, and a multi-day decline to 1400, if not 1375.
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It remains important to note that both the weekly and monthly index cycles are all outright bullish, although they are certainly sporting a very bearish wedge formation, that should in theory eventually break/snap sharply to the downside. As noted last night, a break of 1350 would open up a very much lower target of 1200/1170.
So, for anyone who does short, they really need to catch the top of the cycle, and be very mindful that any declines will probably be pretty limited. Certainly, trading on a Fed day is not for those who are faint of heart.
A little more later.