Wednesday, 8 August 2012

SP'500 primary trend is UP

As a Permabear Doomster, an up trend still has to be recognised as such, and we certainly do currently remain in a broad up trend - even if the daily cycle would suggest its a narrowing wedge, with an eventual target of a break to the downside.

Sp, monthly, rainbow (Elder Impulse)


Its notable that even the June move down to 1266 did not turn the monthly candle red. Indeed, we've not seen a decent red candle since last September.

Yes, the broad formation is still arguably a giant Head and Shoulders formation (as I have been touting since the initial April rollover), but whilst the month on month trend IS upward, anyone currently short is clearly 'fighting the trend' still.

As noted on the daily charts, bears need a break <1350 just to begin 'something', and right now even that level is a long way down! A VIX break over 21 would also be a key necessary component to any major change in trend.

Goodnight from London