Wednesday, 22 August 2012

No bear can be confident until the sp'1340s

So...the indexes actually declined today, after a new brief high on the sp' in the morning. What should the bears be thinking now? Clearly, the declines are nothing less than noise, and with the VIX at 15, this remains a near zero volume fearless market, where the algo-bots are largely still in control.

Lets close today with a quick reminder of the bigger weekly cycle...

SP, weekly, 2yr


As I noted recently on the even bigger monthly chart, the bears need to see a few things in the coming months. The most important being a monthly close back under the 10MA - currently 1345. That sure doesn't seem likely this August, of which we have 8 trading days left to attain it.

For the weekly cycle, its very clear how the bears need sp'1340s to really be sure that the post-June rally is over. Even if we close this week at 1380 - arguably a faint hope right now, we'll still need a further 30pts lower next week, just to have a chance at breaking the primary up channel.

With the Bernanke due to speak at the infamous Jackson Hole next Friday morning, a break into the 1340s...looks out of range right now.

In fact, my concern is that we'll be hovering around 1370 next Thursday..and then start a new up cycle to around sp'1450/75 by late September.

As for tomorrow, we're due to go to negative on the MACD daily cycle, lets see if we can gap under 1408..and close somewhere in the 1390s. That outcome would merit some attention.

Goodnight from London