Friday, 3 August 2012

Daily Index Cycle update

A very mixed and turbulent day for the indexes. Pre-market we saw gains of sp'10pts..only to quickly reverse to -13pts once Mr Draghi noted that 'if even he wanted to do more, he can't, because he is not allowed to under the current rules'. Mr Market was clearly not pleased about that, and the 20pt swing was pretty impressive in the space of just 10 mins.

The latter day bounce was understandable, and it is conceivable we'll open a little higher at the Friday open, purely on the 15/60min cycle momentum alone.


IWM, daily3



Sp, daily5



Transports


Summary

I'll keep this short, its been a long day, so much good entertainment today in market land.

Suffice to say, the daily MACD cycle did get confirmation today, after yesterdays initial rollover.

You can see how much weaker both the Rus'2000  and Transports are compared to the more mainstream sp'500. The cycles are very much lower already, which is a little concerning, but price-wise, we should fall for a least another day or two.


Targets?

First target remains the lower channel line of 1340. A close in the 1330s close would be VERY pleasing, and set up further declines at the Monday open.
Secondary target is 1325, which would cause real problems for the bulls, and open the door to an attempt to take out the early June low of 1266, and then a charge for 1200/1170. 


How might we open Friday?

It is very hard to guess with the looming jobs data, but I will short any opening bounce, if we get one.

A little more later.