Wednesday 1 August 2012

Daily Index Cycle update

A minor down day for the indexes, certainly nothing for the bears to get hyper about. Yet there are some hints that we are forming a top, and now have a chance at rolling over tomorrow - not least if the FOMC disappoints with no new QE.


IWM



Dow



Sp



Transports


Summary

Transports and Rus'2000 (see IWM chart) remain especially weak.

Sp' immediate downside is 1360/65 Anything in the 1350s by the end of this week should be seen as a bonus to the bears, I'd be very surprised if we can break into the 1330s at any point this week, even if the market gets seriously upset that Benny ain't giving out any new free money.

Bears should look for a tranny <5000 tomorrow afternoon if market is not pleased, it remains a massively important level.
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If Mr Market is somehow pleased tomorrow with the FOMC statement/decision, then the bull flags on the hourly charts will play out, and first target will be the 1395/1400 zone. That might still be a post FOMC euphoria that quickly fades, but its something the bears should keep in mind.
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A little more later...

ps...welcome to August. (how can it be August 2012 already?)