Tuesday 31 July 2012

Volatility holds onto moderate gains

With the indexes closing at their lows of the day, the VIX similarly closed at its high of the day.


VIX'60min



VIX, daily, rainbow



VIX, weekly


Summary

The daily rainbow chart again put in another green candle. With the upper bollinger at 20, that would be the natural first target for bears tomorrow, if the FOMC disappoint.

VIX remains low..there is an awful long way up just to hit the mid 20s - which is traditionally the zone where only 'moderate market declines' take the VIX.

For the bears looking for a major new wave lower, look to see VIX break 21, if we see 21.25/50 at any time, then it could get interesting. Yet, at the same time, I still think any index decline are not to be trusted until we're back under sp'1325.
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In the bigger picture, I remain looking for VIX 35/40 in August