Tuesday, 14 August 2012

Bears need to break under sp'1350

For the past week or so, I've been noting the importance of seeing a break back into the sp'1340s. Today's close was nothing of note, but we are potentially completing a topping formation.

Interestingly, we've so far failed to break the April/May highs. If we can back under 1350, the original 'wave'2 theory will surprisingly have held, and then we'll see a massive pick up in bearish chatter.



A quiet day in market land, with abysmal volume, and the VIX trading back into the 13s. I mean, really, Thirteen?

From a MACD (blue bar histogram) perspective, we are without doubt, still cruising higher. There is NO sign of a turn, nor even any levelling out. If we can rollover though, it would set up a very bearish September/October, with a viable 6-10 weeks of general downside.

Desperately seeking <1350

What is absolutely clear, only with a weekly close under sp'1350, can the bears start to get marginally confident about seeing much bigger declines this autumn.

With the daily cycle now rolling over, lets see how low the market can go. The previous cycle low was 1354, a daily close in the 1340s would be a very important event.

Goodnight from London.....
          no longer the sporting capital of the world  :(