Tuesday 14 August 2012

10am update - higher highs, higher lows

With the retail data coming in good, Mr Market is getting an excuse to rally on good news for once. Yet, were the data bad, we'd be rallying on renewed hopes for QE, right?

VIX is green, but its at such a low level, I don't think anything can be read from any up moves.


sp'60min



VIX'60min


sp, daily5


Summary

Even with the current minor gains, we're still declining on the MACD cycle. Yet price IS of course everything, and there is NO sign of a turn in terms of the main price trend.

Bears need a break below the trading range floor of 1395, preferably a close in the 1380s. That IS possible today, - it would certainly surprise a fair few, but it sure won't be easy.

As stated over and over..until we've under 1350..bears should have zero confidence about declines in the autumn.