Tuesday, 10 July 2012

Waiting for the big bear flag to break

To close today, lets look at a couple of the weekly index cycle charts.

NYSE Composite, weekly, 2yr

Sp'500, weekly, 2yr


The weekly charts are still looking bearish (but then, I'm inclined to 'see' that), ha.

Since the April rollover (as seen even more clear via the monthly charts), we've had a wave'1 lower from 1422 to 1266, and now a wave'2 higher from 1266 to 1374 (last Tuesday peak)- that has lasted around six weeks.

...so, a wave'3 awaits? I'd certainly say..YES!, but...its still viable the market may well wish to mess with the minds of the bears. Unless we break sp'1330 in the next few days, there is still a very high chance of a further move higher. It doesn't have to be a higher high in the 1375/90 range, but it could still be a a bounce that stops out a fair few of those bears currently short.

I await a break below sp'1330 in the next 2-3 days. If VIX can break over 20, then the door is open to the first proper spike in volatility to around 24/25.

Goodnight from London