Monday 23 July 2012

Volatility soars...at least for the open

With European worries back on the minds of many, the VIX soared at the open, up 26% in the opening half hour. Yet the VIX closed up just 14% in the mid 18s.

This remains a very complacent level under any situation, and further increases are expected by the end of this week, perhaps as high as 25.


VIX'60min



VIX,daily



VIX, weekly


Summary

An interesting day in the markets, with opening index declines of dow -239, but with a significant recovery as the day proceeded, to close dow-101.

From a MACD cycle perspective, the momentum cycle could still take some hours to reset. Another 2-4 hours seems very reasonable to expect.

A Tuesday early morning decline of -5% or more,  to around VIX 18.. maybe even 17.50 is briefly possible. I would expect some significant higher highs to come by late Wednesday/Thursday.

VIX primary target for August/early September remains 35/40. That seems a very viable objective for the next wave higher - and equates to at least sp'1225/00, possibly 1170/50.

More later