Volatility marginally higher

With the indexes closing moderately lower, the VIX confirmed the move with very marginal gains. However, in the scheme of things, such moves remain largely noise. Until the VIX breaks back over 20, the bears can't take any index declines seriously.


VIX'60min

VIX, daily

VIX, weekly

Summary

The hourly cycle is primed for a few hours higher, but the formation is arguably a bear flag - with corresponding bullish pennants for the indexes.

So, if the market is pleased with any Tuesday earnings data, and can cope with the words of the Bernanke, the VIX could still fall back into the 16s, even 15s briefly this week.
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I still expect a VIX explosion into the mid 30s..possibly 40s sometime in August. Right now, I don't expect anything above VIX'50 this year. The 50 level is an absolutely key threshold those seeking a crash/collapse wave are going to need to keep in mind in the months ahead.

We have a very dynamic and turbulent few months ahead. With the Bernanke still to initiate QE3, All projections subject to change ;)