Tuesday, 3 July 2012

July will be an important month

It is a holiday week, so nothing major is likely to happen, although we do still have the monthly jobs data released this Friday.

What is important to recognise is that how July proceeds, will likely be the leader month for the rest of the year. It is notable that were it not for the bizarre and sickeningly stupid hyper ramp from Thursday 3pm, the SP' monthly chart would have closed largely flat on the month.

Sp, monthly, scenarios


My best guess remains scenario B, but that is predicated on indexes not breaking new highs - equivalent to sp'>1422. It also assumes a turn lower this month, and a break below 1300, and preferably a July close under the June low of sp'1266.

If July can indeed close <1266, then my original monthly cycle target of sp'1150/00 is back on, but it will probably need to be pushed out to end August.

Looking ahead

For Tuesday trading we do have factory orders data at 10am, so there is at least a little to keep a few people interested Yet as ZH noted today, trading volumn was the lowest in TEN years. It is indeed a largely dead market..with just a few old timers left, and a couple of server rooms filled with those nasty HFT algo-bots.

Goodnight from London