Tuesday, 3 July 2012

Daily Index Cycle update

The main indexes all crawled higher again today on next to zero trading volume. Thursday looks set to probably have a similar outcome to today, not least if the ECB cut rates.

sp, daily5, 4mth



The tranny is still lagging (a warning to the underlying market weakness?) , and is yet to break the highs of FOMC week.

The SP'500 is clearly still crawling higher, and upper target range remains 1390/1400 by late Friday. However, if the monthly jobs data rattles the market, we may well get stuck around the 1370/80 level before a new down cycle.

From a MACD cycle perspective, the daily is really getting near the point where I would expect a rollover, but we won't likely have a definitive turn until next Mon/Tuesday.

A little more later...