Bigger picture...remains on schedule

Despite the smaller twist and turns since the market rolled over in April, the bigger picture remains broadly right on schedule.


sp, monthly

Summary

There is nothing bullish about the market from the broadest of perspectives. I find it almost impossible to conceive of new index highs without the Bernanke first appearing with a giant 750bn+ QE3. As I've noted many times before, I don't believe QE3 is viable until the main markets are considerably lower.

The next FOMC decision is Wed' Aug'1st, and I'm guessing that Benny won't be doing QE then either. That view has been reinforced after the last Fed' minutes were released, and it sure doesn't sound like QE is on the table for August at all.


Behold..the right shoulder

We very possibly do indeed have a giant right shoulder forming - as comprised of 3 waves. If sp'1374 is the peak of wave'b, then we are set for a very strong - and to many, unexpected drop into the sp'1100s within the next month or so. I would be a little surprised if such a target was hit, but if it was done over 3-4 months.

As for tomorrow, its 'Friday the thirteenth', maybe some of you will get lucky out there ;) 

Goodnight from London