Friday, 29 June 2012

Daily Index Cycle update

A really bearish day, but tainted by an ugly closing hour. From the early morning gap lower, we saw a little bounce, then further declines to 1313, and then the 'Merkel cancellation', leading to a hyper ramp in the closing hour.

Many bearish traders can indeed justifiably feel sickened and disgusted at this latest madness. However, one hour of ramp can not dismiss the bigger cycles.






A rough day for the bears, although I think I said the same yesterday! Despite the indexes closing fractionally red, this was a really annoying day. We closed with a hanging man candle on the SP. That is bearish, but bears will need to see a new low.. <1313 either Friday or Monday to confirm it.

Dashed hopes for Friday?

The bears could REALLY do with a close tomorrow in the low 1310s..or better. My much-noted wish to see a monthly close <1305 now looks almost out of range.

However, we do have 3 pieces of econ-data tomorrow morning - including Chicago PMI, so..if the data is just might be enough to kick this market lower...

...unless Merkel cancels another press conference.

A little more later...