*I will cover the regular '10 world indexes' next weekend, once we have moved into May.
Okay...here we go....(all charts are 2 year, weekly candles)
IWM (representing Rus'2000 small cap)
We have a bullish engulfing candle, and a close above the 10MA. From a MACD cycle perspective, there is no clear turn back upward yet. I suppose the bears could argue we are just back testing the broken October trend. Only with a break under 78 can the bears regain any degree of confidence, bulls just need a further small move up...a close next week of 84 would be very significant.
NASDAQ Composite
Tech' remains in the post October low channel, and like the Rus'2000, we have a bullish engulfing candle, and a close over the 10MA. MACD cycle is still positive, there is nothing bearish here. First target will be a break over 3128, a mere 59pts away <2%. That is well within range, and is highly viable within the first few days of next week.
Dow'30
Almost a 200pt gain on the week for the Dow, which is pretty amazing considering Mondays action. However, we are now right back to that problem level of 13300. A break above..and bulls have free air until 13500. However, a fail here..and the oft' touted 'waterfall fail' could occur - first target would be 12200 (a clear 1000pts lower). Bulls will understandably want to get above this level as quickly as possible next week. A mere +73pts gap Monday morning would do it.
Technical indicators are threatening to turn outright bullish again, and if we break above 13300 early next week, the Dow will go + cycle on the MACD, and that will probably be a sign that SP'1422 will be taken out, and a further move at least 2-5% higher within May.
NYSE Comp'
The 'master index' as I like to call it, we've a bullish engulfing candle, and a close over the 10MA, there is nothing bearish here either. I guess bears could again argue this index is also setting up to back test the broken October channel. MACD cycle is still positive, but there is still a hint of weakness in this very broad index.
SP'500
A bullish engulfing candle, a close over the 10MA, and a MACD cycle that is still +cycle. SP'500 is now a mere 19pts away from breaking new highs. Only a close under the recent low of 1357 would justify any renewed hope/confidence in bear-land. Bulls arguably merely have to hold current levels in the coming week.
Transports
What has been the weakest index for many months, remains weak. Transports only gained 0.6% on the week, and the MACD cycle remains negative. There is certainly nothing bullish here..yet.
Its possible we could be in a bullish pennant (although the monthly cycle would argue against this). The direction in which the transports breaks in May will be a critical signal in my view. The range is exceptionally tight, so traders - whether bullish or bearish, can go heavy long or short, with good tight stops.
Only a break above 5400 would clarify the new trend as bullish. Bears will need to see a break below the hugely psychological 5000 level to claim the start of something majorly bearish.
Summary
Of the 6 indexes covered, only the Transports is moderately bearish. The other 5 all have strong bullish engulfing candles - such candles that are often reliable indicators of a major trend change to the upside.
Bulls need very little next week, even a flat week to consolidate current gains would probably be enough, and that would set up a bullish May - where we have the Facebook IPO hysteria still to come.
Bears..are in real trouble. A bullish engulfing candle is going to be REALLY difficult to break back below next week.
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The Monthly Cycle update will posted late Saturday.