SP'500 - the bigger perspective

The weekly and monthly cycles are still suggesting the broader trend in the market is changing. However, the SP' is only -3.5% from the peak of 1422. Only a move under the 10MA on the monthly cycle (1285) would give some real support to any mid-term bearish targets in the 1150/1000 range.

Sp'weekly

Sp'monthly

Summary

The weekly cycle on the SP'500 has only just gone negative cycle on the MACD. The monthly cycle will probably take a few months at least to show a conclusive rollover. For short term traders, such cycles are of little use, but I still think they should be followed. When the underlying trend is UP, most trades by default should be Long! It sounds simple, but of course in practice, its very much more difficult to trade within all the day to day market noise.

There are just 4 trading days left of April (now there is a scary thought!). If we close April at - or below, current levels, I'd strongly believe that is indeed the first warning of bigger falls to come. Will be an interesting 4 days to keep an eye on.