Friday, 27 April 2012

NYSE - very uncertain outlook

The NYSE Composite index, weekly and monthly cycles are at a very critical level. A touch higher, and we'll spiral upward, a touch lower...and we could fall a long way across the summer.

NYSE Comp, weekly

NYSE Comp, monthly - bullish outlook


First, the weekly cycle - which from a cycle perspective, has been falling for some 3 months. We did have a very clear break lower 3 weeks ago, and are presently at the important 10MA of 8100.  A back test of the broken trend line could be as high as 8400 - which would interestingly be a new high, and would match up with SP' 1430/40.

The monthly cycle remains bullish, and despite the past few weeks to the downside, we are very much looking to continue what remains a strong up trend since last October. A break over 8330 on the monthly would be very bullish, and open up a target to as high as 10000 later this year - forming a double top from late 2007 ?

Conversely, a break under 7800 would confirm the recent market weakness, and arguably confirm 'great problems' this summer, something in the region equivalent to SP'1150/00.