Thursday, 19 April 2012

Indexes - Daily Cycles, ALL bearish.

A good day for the bears...lets look at those daily cycles!

Nasdaq Comp, daily

Dow, daily

Sp' daily

Trans, daily


There are now bear flags on all the daily charts, some are certainly better than others, the Transports - which has been stuck in a range for what seems like years, is not a great bear flag, and can't be bearishly confident until we see a break under that huge support line. The other indexes though look absolutely crystal clear, bear flags..all ready to snap lower either tomorrow or early next week.

The SP (bullish scenario) chart clearly outlines the targets. 1340..1300, but 1270/50 would remain the most bearish floor I can foresee in the near term (2-6 weeks). Whether we see 1200/1150 within the next few months, that will indeed be dependent on how the weekly/monthly cycles proceed. As noted many times, what remains the most important thing of all, is how we end the month of April. A close under 1370 would be enough to merit the first sell signal from the mother of all charts - the monthly.

Looking ahead to Friday

In addition to looking at the 60min cycle (see earlier 'closing brief' post), since its OPEX, I'd guess we will mostly chop sideways. Any morning gap lower (1365/70) is likely to mostly fill back upward, although we could easily start to sell off toward the latter part of the day. Who wants to dare hold long across the weekend?

From a bearish perspective, the lack of upward movement in the VIX remains my only concern right now.  The ultimate hope for any good bear tomorrow would be a close in the VIX of 20+.