Closing Brief

Hmm...so..we did close UP today. We had the nice opening jump, then some churn for a few hours...and we closed with nothing less than what is a very straightforward baby bull flag on the 60min cycle charts. Minimum target would be around 1385/95 within the next 3-7 trading days. I beleive the thing to look for is if we get consistently stuck around 1400 - especially if that's where we end at next Friday opex.

Sp'60min

VIX' 60min

Summary

Indexes did what they needed to do to confirm a near term floor. We've seen the 5 waves complete, and now we're on our way up. If its a typical ABC/123 up, then I'd guess we've not even completed the A' wave yet.

If the mid-term floor is in (with new highs above sp' 1422> within 2-4 weeks), then market needs to get outta this danger zone as quickly as possible. The 50 day MA is Sp'1373, a close tomorrow above that level would be something the bull camp should be aiming for.

A slightly concerning issue for the bulls tonight would be the VIX. It only closed 2% lower, although as I've noted for some weeks, anything under VIX 20' is arguably noise and largely irrelevant.

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There remain some very serious early warnings out there on the bigger cycles, especially in the commodity world, which I will deal with later this evening.