Friday, 13 May 2016

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are moderately lower, sp -7pts, we're set to open at 2057. USD is +0.2% in the DXY 94.30s. Metals are mixed, Gold +$5, with Silver -0.4%. Oil is -0.5% in the $46s.



So... the messy price action continues.. and we're back on the slide again.

Clearly though, equity bears need to take out yesterday's low of 2053 - where the 50dma is lurking.

Will that occur? Well, market mood sure ain't pretty this morning... so... I'd guess yes.

Worse case: resumed upside to 2090/2100.. before eventually breaking <2K after opex.

In any case... I can't see the bulls breaking up and away this summer..

See Gundlach @ ZH, its like reading my own outlook. Click HERE.

early movers...

JCP -10%.... the retail upset continues
JWN (Nordstrom) -16% .... truly lousy outlook for old school retail
NFLX -1% in the $86s.. no one wants to buy... a move to 50/45 looks viable.

GDX +1%... as Gold is capturing a little fear bid again.

Overnight action

Japan: ending the week on a downer, -1.4% @ 16142
China: moderate chop, -0.3% @ 2827
Germany:  early declines, but currently back to u/c at 9863

Awaiting a quartet of data... not least retail sales and PPI.....

8.31am: retail sales: m/m:  1.3%... better than expected
PPI:  m/m +0.2%.. a touch under consensus

sp -5pts.. 2059.... hmm

With the broadly weak PPI number... Gold is under deflationary talk pressure, swinging to -$2.

Broadly though.. metals/miners remain massively strong.

8.43am... sp -2pts.. 2062... as Liesman on CNBC seems visibly relieved that retail actually printed a positive number.

There is NO question, the mainstream will be on suicide watch if sp'1600s this summer/autumn. Frankly, I'm kinda looking forward to that more than anything.

9.00am.. sp -6pts... 2058.. a mere 5pts shy of the low to break.

After 2053... empty air to 2040/39.... then 2033.. and eventually 200dma.. which would be around 2012/10 zone.

Clearly... sustained action <2K still looks out of range for some weeks.