Friday, 13 May 2016

Equities broadly churning

It was a day of swings in the US equity market, but broadly, the market has been stuck for the better part of seven weeks. Equity bulls need a break above sp'2111.. and eventually 2134, whilst the bears need a sustained break back under the giant psy' level of 2K.


Trans, weekly


It has been not the best of days for yours truly. I'll spare the pitiful and tedious details, but suffice to say.. the market could drop 2000 Dow points next week, and that won't particularly improve my mood.

re: sp'500... remaining stuck under 2100.. but comfortably above the 2000 threshold. The situation is much like late spring/summer 2015.

re: Trans: set for a third consecutive sig' net weekly decline.. and remaining well below the Nov'2014 high.

Best guess?

I'm still looking for a major 20% decline to the sp'1600s this summer/early autumn, and clearly, that outlook would get dropped on any new historic highs (sp >2134, Dow >18351).

Market chatter from the Schiff

Looking ahead

Friday will see a quartet of data: retail sales, PPI, bus' invent', consumer sent'.

*Fed official Williams will be speaking on the economy.. but long after everyone has gone home.

Goodnight from London