Friday 13 May 2016

1pm update - melting to the upside

With no downside power, the equity bears are still unable to break the sp'2053 low. The market is battling to melt upward into the weekend. A move back to the 2080s is clearly viable, before the next concerted attempt to break multiple aspects of support in the 2040/2000 zone.


sp'60min



VIX'60min



Summary

It remains an increasingly tedious borderline situation.

Clearly, any break <2053, and we see increasing weakness into the weekly close.

However, current price action is broadly choppy, and that favour the bulls.. with another push higher next Mon-Wed'.

RE: waves... I could stick all manner of labels on the action since sp'2111.. but most of you could see a clear '1 down to 2039.. and we're in a viable wave'2 UP,  ABC/123 wave higher to the 2080/2100s, before a stronger push into end May.
--

Right now, I'm inclined to renewed upside, but I've low confidence in that... as we're only 0.3% from breaking soft support.

-
notable weakness... oil, USO, daily


Yesterday's black-fail daily candle in the WTIC $46s is somewhat bearish.. and we're certainly cooling a little today.

Who wants to be long Oil, or buy energy stocks at these levels?
--

time for some sun.. or rather.. mostly cloud.



1.30pm... sp'2054.... fractionally interesting...  VIX sure reflect ANY concern though, +1% in the 14s.