Tuesday, 3 May 2016

11am update - significantly lower

US equities continue to slip, with all the main indexes now significantly lower. It is notable that the 'old leader' - Transports, has taken out the 50/200 day MAs. VIX is holding gains of around 8%, but still in the relatively low upper 15s.

Trans, daily



Well, its kinda interesting... but really...  even a daily close in the 2040s won't get me particularly excited. For that... I need the 2020s, and that is clearly out of range today.. if not until Friday.

VIX has plenty of upside spike territory to the 19/21 zone. The bigger weekly cycle offers 25/28s.. but that looks out of range in the current cycle.

For now.. a realistic outcome is 2040.. with VIX 18s.

Best case... 1990s.. with VIX 20/21s... briefly.

In either case.. another bounce... at least to 2050/60s.

notable weakness... DB, daily

... with the Australian central bank cutting rates.. its a reminder that low rates.. or worse - NIRP, are a disastrous monetary policy for the financials. When DB loses the $15s, it'll be a clear signal the broader world markets are about to snap powerfully lower.

time to cook