Friday, 13 May 2016

10am update - messy open

US equities open moderately lower, then turn fractionally positive, and are currently in minor chop mode. Price action still doesn't offer anything significant to the bears.. and unless sp'2053 is taken out, yet another move to the 2090/2100 zone is due.




Frankly, it remains a mess, as broader price action is choppy... and a concerted break <2039 looks extremely difficult.

Considering the current price action... a move to 2090/2100 looks more probable.. before next chance of a down wave.

This is indeed almost an exact replay of spring/summer 2015.. with an eventual big break lower. Obviously, major uncertainty ahead of a BREXIT vote would be a valid excuse for an initial push lower into the 1900s.

For the moment, lousy earnings/growth.. the market just doesn't care.

Meanwhile.... in a letter to congress...

More threats of NIRP... and other things from the CEO of Print central... which is of course ironic as the main market is only 3-5% from historic highs.

.. and we know.. the only data the Fed is dependent upon is the level of the sp'500.

10.02am.  consumer sent'  95.8.... way above expectations.

So.. everything is fine in retail land after all, right?

Business inventories: +0.4%..  a little above expect'... and nothing for the macro-bears to look to.

Ohhh.. and I didn't even mention the opening black-fail candle in the VIX.  That ain't a good sign for those in bear land.