Wednesday, 23 March 2016

3pm update - the master index

The NYSE comp' (the master index as I call it) has had three clear attempts to break and hold above key 200dma. Today's current net daily decline of -0.6% is clearly nothing significant.. but price structure is increasingly weak.. at what is a major aspect of resistance.

NYSE comp', daily

R2K, daily


*the second market leader - R2K, is also showing issuing a provisional warning sign... having recently got stuck at 1103.. a mere trio of points above what is a very key threshold.

Oil -4.3%.. unable to hold the $40 threshold. Where is a Kuwaiti oil minister to spread a rumour when we need one?

Considering the 3 day weekend approaching, one of my personal rules is not to trade into such a break - not least for options for reasons of time decay.

The hourly MACD cycle IS on the low end, and frankly, that ain't exactly enticing me either...and then there is the Yellen next Tuesday.

updates into the close........ as I've a few bits and pieces I am churning on...



Six weeks of upside... and we've got stuck at natural declining resistance in the sp'2050s.. with VIX 13s.

The bearish hysteria may begin once we see a blue candle appear.

3.16pm.. notable weakness... DB,daily

A break of rising channel/trend... not pretty. The 20s look out of range.. even if Oil magically moves back above $40.

3.31pm... a fair bit of chop in the sp'2030s.. with VIX +5% around 15.  Certainly, its nothing significant yet.. but we might actually have a key mid term top.

notable strength, TVIX +9%, but only in the $5.20s.. which would have seemed a bizarely low level just 2 weeks ago.


Q. I don't see any comments via the Disqus system in recent posts?   Is it just me... or I'm guessing.. a temp' problem with Disqus?

3.41pm.... Clown finance TV guest...

Mr Tom Kloza of 'oil price information service' is touting $50 by year end. That doesn't seem a bold target, but I do hope they bring him back on if WTIC is in the teens this summer.

back at the close................