Wednesday, 3 February 2016

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures are moderately higher, sp +4pts, we're set to open at 1907. USD is -0.3% in the DXY 98.50s. Metals are flat. Oil is +1.3%... ahead of the latest EIA report.



*awaiting ADP jobs data.. and a few other things.

Overnight futures are somewhat twitchy, not least as Asian/EU markets are broadly weak.

Yesterday certainly gave the mainstream a scare, and it should serve as a reminder that the market is vulnerable to big declines on almost any excuse.

Best guess: today will be messy.... with a lower low (<1897) late today/tomorrow. Friday offers better chance of a sustained rebound, with the sp'1970s viable next week.

With the weekly cycles as they are, I can't get involved until next week, preferably a short from 1970s next Wed/Thursday.

Update from Mr C.

Considering its now February, Oscar sure is skittish on issuing a broader downside target. I don't see why, as he is now unquestionably selling into each rally.

Doomer chat, Hunter with Salinas

I highlight it, not because it makes much sense, but because its a fine example of why those obsessed with gold have lost the plot. The notion that gold is going to 'save the world' is beyond crazy.

Gold bugs can talk all they want about bank reserves, but its largely meaningless. Gold is only worth what the market decides... which is generally only marginally higher than production costs.

Overnight action...

Japan: -3/1% in the 17100s, after financials decline, as Kuroda goes Draghi, threatening 'no limits' to QE/NIRP.

China: latter day recovery, -0.4% @ 2739
Germany: -1.2% @ 9473.... very weak price action

Have a good Wednesday

8.16am.. ADP jobs; 205k... not super great... but neither terrible.