Tuesday, 9 February 2016

Daily Index Cycle update

US equity indexes began the week with very significant declines, sp -26pts @ 1853 (intra low 1828). The two leaders - Trans/R2K, settled lower by -0.3% and -1.6% respectively. Near term outlook is very borderline, with serious threat of the Jan'20th low of 1812 bring broken.. as the Nasdaq and R2K have now done so.





sp'500: a second consecutive significant net daily decline.. coming within 16pts (0.8%) of the Jan'20th low. Right now, best case upside remains a 8-10 day rally to the 1950/70 zone. Sustained action above the 2K threshold looks out of range until the late summer.

It should be clear though, if 1812 fails to hold, there would be increasing downward pressure, with next support in the 1750/25 zone.

Best guess..renewed upside >1947, but clearly, its a very borderline situation, with the Nasdaq/R2K suggesting the main market will continue falling.

R2K: a marginal break of the Jan'20th low.... although the closing daily candle was somewhat spiky, offering a short term low of 955.

Trans: price structure remains a very clear multi-week bear flag. At best, upside to the 50dma around 7200 in just over a week.

a little more later...