Wednesday, 3 February 2016

11am update - time for a turn upward

The opening gains were indeed shaky, with the market unravelling to sp'1872.. with VIX 24.99. It seems highly probable that the market will stabilise from here.. and begin a difficult battle upward to the 1970s. With another giant inventory oil surplus of 7.8 million barrels, Oil is swinging wildly.. now +3.3%.



So... a morning washout - helped by oil, and cyclically, we're now setup to grind back upward, from the typical turn time of 11am.

Clearly though.. the broader picture remains very bearish, and both this morning and yesterdays price action are further examples of just how weak the US market now is.

notable weakness...

BAC, daily

Kuroda - and of course Draghi, really are wrecking the financials. There are going to be some financials impacted by 'mini black swans' this spring, from the oil/gas/mining sector.

Next support for BAC... $10... and that does seem extremely probable, relative to sp'1700/1600s.

Meanwhile, here in London city...

Rather good indeed, another day closer to summer :)
time to cook

Bonus chart...


Stockcharts is saying we had a print of 27.70, but my trading screen only shows 24.99. I'm going with the latter.

11.03am.. Oil +5.4%... hyper short-stop cascade upward..... pure 100% CRAZY.

.. despite another giant inventory.  This is just wild... and of course.. renewed downside is a given, as the underlying over-supply problem is STILL yet to be addressed.