Thursday, 28 January 2016

Pre-Market Brief

US equity futures are moderately higher, sp +4pts, we're set to open at 1886. Whilst the USD is broadly flat in the DXY 98.80s, metals are cooling, Gold -$6. Oil is trying to build further gains, +1.3% in the $32s.



So, yesterday afternoon clearly rattled many.

There is a lot of chatter that we're now on a resumed downward trend under the 1812 low within a week or so

Err.. no. That looks overly difficult from a pure cyclical perspective. I can't think of a major down wave that restarted with the current technical setup.

Best guess remains: 1940s... at minimum... if not the 1970s by mid February. At that point the mainstream will be rather pleased with themselves, and will likely be back to near total complacency.

The bigger issues of industry capitulation within the oil/gas and mining sector is due this spring... and its somewhat bizarre that very few are even considering it.

notable early movers

FB +14% @ $107s. Earnings were actually rather good, EPS 79 cents on rev' $5.4bn.
UA +12% in the $76s, more post earnings joy, EPS 48 cents
EBAY -12% @ $23, EPS 46 cents, but with a 'soft outlook'.

Update from Mr C.

Overnight action..

Japan: choppy, -0.7% @ 17041
China: unravelling into the close, -2.9% @ 2655
Germany: remaining weak, currently -1.6% @ 9726

*awaiting Durable Goods Orders data @ 8.30am....

8.31am Durable goods orders: m/m  -5.1 ,   ex-trans: -1.2%.

Nothing good there for the macro-bulls, and it adds to broader weakness as suggested by the Chicago PMI.

sp' +2pts @ 1884

What should be clear though, relative to other world markets, the US is holding together very well.

9.05am.. Bears starting to get routed.. sp +16pts @ 1898.

Bulls should have free reign today... the next problem is GDP. If market can cope with that.. then its open air upward into mid February.

9.16am.. Oil has jumped 5.9%.. to the 33/34s... hence equities dragged upward.

$35s look a pretty easy target, but clearly are not sustainable.