Monday, 11 January 2016

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. US equity futures have swung from an overnight low - equiv' to sp -18pts @ 1904, to +7pts, we're set to open at 1929. Commodities remain broadly weak, with Copper losing the $2.00 threshold, whilst Oil is -0.8% in the $32s.




*first soft resistance remains the hourly 10MA, which this morning will be in the 1940/35 zone.

We're clearly seeing the first attempt to clarify that 1920/00 zone is a short term floor.

There is NO question though, broadly.. we're headed much lower in the weeks and months ahead. The sp'1650/1550 zone looks extremely probable by May/June.

For now... there is clearly threat that an overnight ES low is in at 1893.

If that is a low, then a 50% retrace of the down wave from 2081 offers the 2000/1999 threshold.

I'd argue it is overly risky a bounce to play.. as we might simply resume falling later today though.

Best guess... the cash market to test the overnight low in the 1905/00 zone... and then a bounce into opex, and probably a week beyond.

Sustained action above the monthly 10MA (2030s) and indeed, the sp'2K threshold looks out of range for at least EIGHT months.

Update from Oscar


Doomer chat, Hunter with Kirby

As ever, make of that, what you will. I still think the gold bugs are yet to capitulate... and the notion of a USD collapse is ludicrous. Would you rather hold Euros or Yen? Of course, in the minds of Gold bugs, we will all be shopping at Walmart with gold/silver coins in our pockets. There is higher probability of me winning the powerball each week for a year.

Overnight action...

China: -5.3% @ 3016. A loss of 3K will confirm that the 2500s are coming... pretty soon.

Germany: currently +0.5% in the 9900s. Sustained action >10K looks unlikely for months.

... and Bowie died this weekend :(  

Good wishes for the trading week ahead

8.47am.. sp +10pts... 1932.

Indexes look vulnerable to turning red later today.  For the moment, there is ZERO reason - other than technical, to expect a bounce.

Oil remains a problem for the equity bulls... the loss of the $30 threshold looks a given.. just a matter of in this cycle.. or the next.

*the fact the market was unable to rally on 'good jobs news' remains a pretty bearish event.

... here comes Cramer...

9.06am  Well, so far no one wants to buy the market above sp'1935 or so. 

Oil is looking problematic, -1.3%.

9.40am... EXITED TVIX-long.... .   I just don't like the smaller cycles setup... nevermind the overnight futures reversal.