Friday, 15 January 2016

3pm update - a third net weekly decline

US equity indexes are set for a third consecutive net weekly decline, having broken a new cycle low of sp'1857.. the lowest level since Oct'2014. VIX is holding gains of around 20% in the 28s... which considering the equity market weakness, is arguably somewhat subdued.




Regardless of the closing hour - which frankly.. could see almost anything happen, its a third week for the equity bears.

Clearly, any bounces are to be shorted in the weeks and months ahead.

The sp'1600/1500s look a rather easy target.

From a pure technical perspective, by this April, the leading/headline indexes (sp'500, dow, nasdaq) will have the same MACD setup as Sept'2008.. and we remember how that month traded, right?

Say hello...

I'll keep DISQUS open for the 3pm post on my screen in the closing hour.. so.. if you want to say hello... please do !

yours.... not short... but neither getting his ass kicked on the long side.

I live to fight another day :)

3.04pm.. I can't remember who highlighted CBRL to me recently.....

Today its offering a rather powerful hyper-reversal candle. First upside target would be the 50dma in the $127s

Another sign of a 'natural floor'...

APA, daily

H/S formation has played out... a bounce to 40/42 zone would not be overly bold.


'hollow red' reversal candles appearing all over the place...

AAPL, daily

First target is the 102/105 zone.

3.12pm.. As things are, the hourly MACD cycle is set to turn positive early Tuesday, but who wants to seriously go long on such a trend, whilst price action remains broadly weak?

Today was day'12.. and typically... that is usually the max number of days in a short term down wave.

Arguing against that is that the VIX remains relatively subdued, and there is no sign of capitulation.

Market twitchy... sp -43pts @ 1878     VIX 27.90

3.27pm... We could still close as high as 1890.. as there might be a fair few short side traders who fear the PBOC doing something this weekend.

3.37pm... Increasingly looking like the market makers are striving to pin the market at sp'1885/90