Friday, 15 January 2016

2pm update - remaining broadly weak

US equities remain very significantly lower, sp -46pts @ 1875, having seen an earlier low of 1857.. decisively breaking the Aug' low, and confirming the much earlier breaks in the Trans/R2K. VIX remains elevated, +22%, but relative to the equity weakness, is somewhat surprisingly only in the 29s.




*VIX is looking somewhat toppy, and it is indeed surprising to see VIX still not trading into the 35/40 zone.

With each new low, the equity bounce target is lowered, and it should be clear to even the cheerleaders on clown finance TV, we ain't going to be >2k for a long.... long time.

other issues today...

Gold, +$11, classic fear-bid gains...  with GDX +0.4%... a bad week overall though for ALL miners

Oil -5.3% in the $29s... next support is around $25.  Sub $20 looks due for 'industry capitulation'.

Two hours to go... opex... expect more chop... and increasing vol'. 

2.17pm.. Cyclically, hourly MACD cycle is offering a turn/floor from sp'1857... but there are an awful lot of reason to dismiss the smaller cycles right now.