Monday, 11 January 2016

2pm update - R2K breaks the 2014 low

The broader market is now significantly lower, with notable weakness in the second market leader - R2K, which has broken below the Oct'2014 low of 1040. Next support is the 1010/1000 zone. Broadly.. the 800s look due in the weeks/months ahead.

R2K, weekly



*thanks for the reminder on the R2K, from poster Hawkward. Hard to keep up with every index.. all of the time!

So.. R2K is now confirming what the Transports did last August.

Consider that sp'500 was 1820 in Oct'2014.. with 1867 in Aug'2015.


Yes... the fib' retrace/bounce targets will keep getting downgraded until 'morale improves'.. or something like that.

re: sp' hourly. Note the powerful resistance of the 10MA. Until we see a few candles over that.. there is no clarity of a bounce.

Key issue...

Attempting to play bounces is fraught with problems as the bigger weekly/monthly cycles are outright bearish.

**Oil is imploding, with a new low of $30.88

Sure I'm not short the market right now, but I ain't losing money trying to trade long from the 1920s, 10s, or lower. I'd rather wait for an equity bounce to play out. Right now.. that doesn't look likely to complete until well into next Tue/Wed'

2.07pm.. ohh lookie... the Fed wheel out Lockhart....

 .. market making another floor attempt.


2.19pm... more I think about it... a rally/bounce into the next FOMC - Wed' Jan 27th would fit.

Not counting today... that'd offer 4, 4, 3...    11 total days for market to rally... and see the VIX cool back <20.