Friday, 15 January 2016

1pm update - why the 1750/25 zone?

The December close was definitively bearish, and at such time, consideration of the bigger weekly/monthly cycles provided a first key target zone of sp'1750/25, specifically, 1730. That is clearly viable in the immediate term, and would make for a natural short term capitulation before a bounce.




There are a fair few reasons why the 1750/25 zone should be hit, but I do like the basic fib' retrace (of the 2011/15 wave), along with the 60EMA, aka the Jan'2008 analogy.

Things are clearly very bearish today.. and there is serious threat things will unravel across this afternoon.

Keep in mind, the circuit breakers kick in at -7%... (1921.84 x 0.07) =   -134.52pts

1921.84-134.52:   market would be suspended @ 1787.32

It should be clear to anyone who decides to hold short across the weekend, the China leadership might lower rates, change the RRR, or hit the BUY button.

A further concern should be that most short term down waves never exceed 12 trading days... and today is day'12.

For now... stay tuned... the next 3 hours could be rather entertaining.