Friday, 15 January 2016

11am update - its clearly a mess

US equities break a new cycle low of sp'1872.. a mere 5pts above the Aug' low, whilst keeping in mind the Trans/R2K are well below last Aug'. VIX is so far unable to break above the opening high of 28.96... and considering we saw VIX 50s when sp'1867... the current VIX is surprisingly low.




*around 10.40am, there was a 'rogue print' on the VIX of 30.95, and is arguably to be dismissed.

So much for the Thursday short term floor of sp'1878.

I've adjusted (yet again) the fib' retrace. Right now.. best case for the bulls is a bounce to 1952/77.. which would not be until the FOMC of Jan'27th.

Indeed, a bounce peak on Fed day is often the case.

However, lets be absolutely clear....

From a trading perspective, this is a real mess...

Would you really want to chase short from these levels?

.. but then.. do you want to buy the dip, knowing that the 1700s are viable next Tuesday?

For most.. its arguably a case of sitting it out ahead of the long weekend.

Here in London city...

Icy sunshine

'Giant sale, now on', somewhat appropriate.

Its pretty icy in the giant metropolis... but hey, its sunny :) 

Bonus chart...

notable weakness... INTC

Bear flag confirmed... 200dma lost. Gap fill to $31/32 in FOMC week.. before next collapse wave?

time to cook