Monday, 11 January 2016

11am update - choppy, and bearishly tired

US equities are certainly not showing much upside kick, but neither do the bears look remotely able to break below the original target zone of sp'1920/00. A bounce to the 1980/90 zone looks probable... and that will at least take until Thursday.. if not into next week.




It sure is choppy, and no... I'm not expecting a sig' net Monday gain.

However.. the situation doesn't look great for the bears, and I'm increasingly glad I made a run for the exit door.

*I have ZERO interest in trying to trade the upside bounces. I realise some of you can... but I shall refrain from that. Instead, its sit back and wait...for the 1980/90 zone.

On no reasonable outlook does sustained price action >2K look possible.

To me.. an equity-index re-short (and/or long VIX) from the sp'1980/90 zone looks a no-brainer.

11.01am...   new cycle low of sp'1917....  but VIX remains negative.

Nothing has changed.. still expecting a bounce.

Anyone still short is arguably getting a bonus opportunity to close out... or at least tighten stops.


FCX, daily

Mr Market is clearly starting to consider that FCX might 'disappear'.

11.08am.. sp'1913...     VIX remains -2%.

Again, the risk still appears against the equity bears.. from a pure cyclical perspective.

.. and its typical floor time anyway.   When are the buy programs going to start appearing?

11.29am.. So.. marginal new low of 1913.51... but we're clearly exhausted in terms of downside.

Today was very likely a bonus opp' for bears to exit.. and wait for a sig' bounce.