Monday, 11 January 2016

10am update - cyclically due to rally

From a pure cyclical perspective, equities are set to rally for a few days. Considering opex is this Friday, there is clear threat of the market battling at least to the 1980s. However, sustained action above the 2K threshold looks out of range.




*I EXITED TVIX-long, as the micro 5/15 min cycles look highly vulnerable to turning lower.. as equities are threatening upside.. with VIX cooling back under the 20 threshold.

A disappointing overnight session, with equities rebounding - despite China imploding by another -5%.

7 down days from the sp'2081 high.

3 days UP.. from 1918 looks probable. In any case.. 1980s look a serious threat, and I'm content to side step things.

Just so there is no misunderstanding...

I have ZERO interest in trying to trade any equity bounces. I'd rather sit back, and wait for a better short entry.

If the market resumes falling without me... so be it.

With each minute of price action.. it sure doesn't look bullish... but neither does it merit being short... at least to me.

A moderate net daily gain looks probable.

10.31am... Looks like Friday afternoon was the floor of this down wave @ 1918.

It'll be a tough battle to push upward - as weekly/monthly cycles are hugely bearish.. but we should get there.

Eyes on the VIX.. a daily close in the 24/23s looks possible now.