Friday, 31 July 2015

Pre-Market Brief

Good morning. Futures are a little lower, sp -2pts, we're set to open at 2106. USD is cooling, -0.2% in the DXY 97.30s. Metals are ending the month on a negative note, Gold -$7, with Silver -1.1%. Oil is similarly weak, -1.7% in the $47s.




Well, its the end of another month.. and for the chart maniacs out there.. how we close the month is always an important issue.

For me... I want to see the VIX climb into the weekend, and see the weekly MACD (blue bar histogram) turn back positive. A neg' monthly close certainly doesn't negate hope of equity downside into Sept/Oct, but I'd sure feel better about things if we do close back above the zero threshold.

*awaiting Chicago PMI, market is expecting 50.0. Anything in the 49s.. or certainly 48s will again be a warning that things ain't so great out there.

early movers...

oil/gas drillers, SDRL -2.4%.. as Oil resumes lower

EXPE +8.3%... post earnings

LNKD -5.8% @ $214.. which is a rather severe reversal from the initial earnings reaction of +12%.

Overnight China action... China ended the month on a negative note, settling -1.1% @ 3663. The monthly decline (will post more on it later)... confirmed the big turn in June. Further weakness to the 3200/3000 zone looks a given. Considering its only July.... with a 'window of weakness' into Sept/Oct... I'd not be surprised to see 2500 before the retail-gambling madness resumes higher into next year.

Have a good Friday.

8.02am... XOM earnings... clear miss... EPS @ $1.... a year ago.. it was earning over $3 per quarter!

initial stock reaction.. a little lower, -0.9% @ $82.00

meanwhile... others are getting credit for my messages...

Bearish media hack interns.

8.25am... Energy stocks having real problems... XOM -1.8%... CVX -1.1%.. the latter has earnings at 9am
Indexes cooling, sp -4pts... 2104.

Equity bears need to see a break <2090 today.. with VIX 14s.... that will offer clarity for next week.

8.31am.. and futures jump from -4 to +1pt..... on 'employment cost' data, +0.2%... lower than expected... hence market looking for less chance of rate hike in Sept'

8.34am. CVX..  EPS 30 cents.. vs $1.16 estimate..   another huge miss.....   CVX -1.6%...

With the employ' cost data... USD has snapped lower, -0.7%... which is helping Gold/Oil recover.

The bigger data point remains PMI... due at 9.45am.

USD smack down... -0.9% in the DXY 96.60s.... but still net higher on the month.

8.43am.. Well... its an old fashioned 'dollar lower... everything else UP' situation... USD -1.0%.. with sp now +3pts... 2111.

Gold reversing from -7 to +2.     Even Oil is back to -1.1%

9.00am.. With 'bad news is good news'... sp +5pts... 2113...  a mere 1.1% from a new historic high.

Barring an opening reversal.. this is starting to look ugly for the equity bears... as USD rapidly cools.

9.33am.. shaky opening gains..... eyes sharp for reversal candles......

9.35am.. black-fail candles appearing all over the place..

notable weakness: INTC -0.3%.... not looking pretty.

9.45am.. CHICAGO PMI 54.7.... a clear beat.... and out of recessionary territory.

Now the market will be concerned about rate rises again, lol