Tuesday, 14 July 2015

3pm update - tedious Tuesday

US equities have managed to claw another point higher to sp'2110. Cyclically, the market is still due to break lower within 1-2 trading hours... with Yellen a very valid excuse tomorrow morning. Regardless of any weakness tomorrow, the broader trend still looks bullish into early August.. before things might finally get 'interesting'.




Well.. the market sure is taking its time in exhausting this up wave.

From a pure cyclical perspective.. this market is due to break lower... and by the Wed' close, there will be very strong support around 2080.

*I am on the sidelines. having dropped INTC-long near the open. If I'm correct about Wed' weakness... INTC is going to really struggle tomorrow... and if <29.30.. it would bode badly for the market reaction to earnings.

3.07pm. sp' 2111... it almost appears we're in algo-bot melt mode.

Regardless... we're still due a down wave... with the Yellen tomorrow.

3.28pm.. Well.. still the same....  VIX is back above 13.00 though... with sp'2111.

Bulls arguably getting an opportunity to exit into strength... ahead of the Yellen.

Downside target remains 2080.. but I realise that is a full 1.5% lower.. and that sure feels a long way down right now.. and probably out of range for tomorrow.

So.. maybe any down cycle will drag out into Thursday.. .before rallying on Friday.