Friday, 31 July 2015

10am update - opening reversal

US equities opened a little higher to a new cycle/bounce high of sp'2113, but then see a rather clear reversal back lower - as also reflected in the VIX. USD remains beaten down though after weak employment cost data. Commodities are mixed, Gold +$9 (from -7), with Oil -0.7%




*CHICAGO PMI 54.7... a clearly non-recessionary number, and much better than the market expectation of 50.0.

The final day of the month is proving to be pretty wild already... we have a long day ahead!

It remains the case that from a pure cyclical perspective, we're due increasing weakness into the weekend... and probably.. next Monday.
notable weakness: BABA -1.2%

TWTR -1.8%... with the psy' level of $30 within range... and it won't likely hold.

LNKD, -9.6%... utterly hillarious reversal from the AH gain of 12%.

Hourly equity/VIX cycles are set for bearish/bullish crosses respectively.. by lunch time.... so.. we should in theory see increasing weakness across the day.

All thats missing is a 'spooky' Greek news headline.

10.01am.. consumer sentiment 93.1.... broadly inline...

10.06am.. Eyes on AAPL.. if it loses the $119 low... that is a major signal

. watching

notable weakness, XOM and CVX, both -4.5%... on lousy earnings

10.32am.. chop chop.... eyes on AAPL... already hitting $120s.