Monday, 20 July 2015

10am update - another step closer to gold bug capitulation

Whilst US equities open with some moderate chop, the more notable action is in precious metals. Gold has decisively taken out the Nov' 2014 low, currently -$24, with Silver -0.6%. The related miners are naturally getting destroyed, with the miner ETF of GDX -5.7%... well below the crash low of Oct'2008.

GLD, daily



*it is too hard to resist to begin the day with a little bash against the gold bugs, who remain the most twisted group of investors (and I use the term loosely).

Typically, the gold bug has been buying ALL the way down from the $1900s.. and has a portfolio consisting almost entirely of mining stocks. Most of the latter have lost 85/90% since the 2011 high.

No doubt.. some of the bugs will be buying today... all I shall say is... good luck with that.

As for equities... market remains looking tired... we're due a retrace. A moderate net daily decline would seem reasonable to target.. and that would set up increasing weakness across tomorrow and Wednesday.


Prime exit zone remains the 15/16s, but certainly.. the big 20 threshold looks out of range in the near term.

stay tuned