Friday, 6 February 2015

VIX sharply lower on the week

With equities rebounding from a Monday low of sp'1980 to a Fri' high of 2072, the VIX saw broad weakness across the week, settling +2.6% @ 17.29 (intra low 16.06). Across the week, the VIX declined by a very significant -17.5%.




The last nine trading weeks have been the most volatile in the VIX since autumn 2011.

Even though the VIX closed below the key 20 threshold, there is arguably an underlying upward pressure... more recently 'inspired' by renewed concerns about Greece.

Can VIX spike into the 30s.. or even 40s?

It remains the big unknown in the near term... not least ahead of the ECB QE-pomo program for the EU.

If the equity bulls can break the Dec' high of Dow 18103.. along with sp'2093... then VIX will melt to the low teens.. or even a little lower.  Seasonally, the next best opportunity for the equity bears will be from late April-June. Until then.. things will likely remain somewhat 'relatively' subdued'.

*as things are, I have ZERO interest in being long the VIX in the immediate term.

more later... on the indexes