Monday 7 April 2014

Volatility breaking higher

With equities weak for a second day, the VIX pushed higher, peaking at 16.01, but settling +11.3% @ 15.57. Near term outlook is for a higher VIX, and if sp<1840, we should see the VIX break above the key threshold of 20 in a matter of days.


VIX'60min


VIX'daily3


Summary

So..VIX 16s..if only briefly..but we do have a very clear conclusion to the decline/melt lower from mid March.

The only issue now in my view is whether the VIX can break the 2013 high of 21.90s in the current cycle. If sp'1780/70s - which IS viable in the near term (if the 50 MA of sp'1839 fails), then VIX 23/25, on a spike.
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more later..on the indexes