Wednesday 29 January 2014

10am update - opening black VIX candle

The indexes open with borderline significant declines to sp'1774, but we're seeing a notable bounce already. Traders need to be very careful on what is a key Fed day. VIX is higher, but has failed to hold the low 18s. Metals are higher, Gold +$11


sp'60min


vix'60min


Summary

*frankly, the opening VIX candle, a black-fail, should concern the bears. Often..that is the first sign of trouble.

Further, whilst sp' got to 1774 - just 2pts above the Monday low..the VIX was 97bps lower than the high of 18.99. A divergence..to keep in mind.
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Without question, the only reasonable 'chase it lower' level is on a break <1765...and a decent re-short zone remains...1810/15.

Stay sharp everyone....we've a long day ahead!
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10.15am.. notable mover, AAPL, despite the index bounce..looks weak...a break <$500, opens up 480 within days - where the 200 day is!


10.24am.. what a chop fest. Baring a break <1774...we'll battle higher from here. I just very concerned at the opening VIX candle..more often than not..that does not end well for those in bear land.

AAPL loses $500...and the volume surges..as huge amount of stops are  hit.


10.40am.. best case for the bulls still looks to be 1810/15...but that makes for a very easy re-short zone...along with VIX 15/14.50.