Tuesday 26 March 2013

Daily Index Cycle update

The US indexes saw a choppy Monday. Opening minor gains - which saw the SP' fractionally break the recent 1563 high failed to hold, after some EU minister said something (or not)..and the market slipped, closing off the lows. Near term trend looks messy, sp'1570s..still viable.


IWM



SP'daily5



Trans


Summary

Well, that's one day complete in this short four day week. I think today was a real mind-frak for many traders.

With opening gains, Mr Market no doubt short-stopped a lot of bears out in the 1560/64 zone, only for the market to reverse.

Yet, with the Dow -100pts or so, then we saw a re-statement of what the EU minister had supposedly said, and the market ramps back, kicking out those bears who were shorting into the declines.
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It remains a nasty market for those on the bearish side, one where the primary trend - weekly/monthly cycles, is still UP.

I don't see any point in shorting this market ahead of the 3 day Easter weekend, and besides, I still think there is a very significant chance of the market breaking into the 1570s before this November-March wave completes.

a little more later